The championship battle between the teams of Brendan Rodgers and Philippe Clement is intensifying.(Photo: NQ)

Celtic is vying for the crown.

I’m going to get the typical “entitled” responses if I say this is ridiculous. But pure economics suggests that the richest club usually wins in sport. With £70 million in the bank, they are undoubtedly the champions.

It is also true that, despite their inherent stadium capacity and match-day income declines season after season, not to mention their relative commercial performance, Ibrox is straining every financial muscle to the breaking point. Their player payroll is astoundingly more than the Celtics’. There are other podcasts that discuss the effectiveness of the Celtic Board in determining budgets and strategies, but this one does not. In this instance, we handle the world as it is.

Back to the race for the title, then. What will set Celtic apart in the final stretch and, more importantly, where needs to they improve?

Goalie

Without a doubt, the Rangers goalkeeper is a media favorite, and calls for an England call-up are frequent. Like Joe Hart of the Celtics, the 31-year-old joined in 2021 with the intention of rebuilding a career that was slipping away into a bench role. At the conclusion of this season, Hart, who is 37, plans to retire. He wants to win another title and go out on a high.

In contrast to what the publications would claim, neither the top nor bottom of the important metrics—such as goals saved over average—are. In overall, SPFL teams did a good job of recruiting in this area last summer. Zach Hemming (St Mirren), Will Dennis (Kilmarnock), and Dimitar Mitov (St Johnstone) have all made an impression.

But the top two are situated each side of the average. Butland is saving 0.07 goals more than average each game, while Hart is giving up 0.05 goals less than average. In fact, in most significant criteria, the Rangers keeper performs better than his senior Englishman.

In comparison to a projected save performance of 77 and 74, respectively, his save % is 80 to 72. Again, Hart came in just short of expectations while Butland slightly exceeded them. When it comes to his average distance from the ideal position when facing a shot, Hart is in the 54th percentile whereas Butland is in the 99th percentile.

Hart is not present in the area. Statistically speaking, Allan McGregor was the league’s poorest keeper the previous season and may have played in one too many games. For the SPFL, he falls into the “just below average” group. Hart, however, came in last in the Champions League according to comparable measures.

This indicates that Butland is a very capable caretaker and that Hart is likely leaving before his performance levels literally fall off a cliff. We must hope that Hart summons the last traces of the form that made him England’s best player from muscle memory for the closing stretch, while simultaneously praying that Butland has some unfavorable variation.

Carter-Vickers

Due to injuries, Celtic’s center-back position has experienced a constant turnover of players. Due to a persistent hamstring issue, Cameron Carter-Vickers, the clear first selection, has been noticeably hindered and absent. Though he has made a significant contribution to just over half of the league games, he frequently appeared to be moving slowly.

Surprisingly, Celtic has given up 0.81 goals per game with Carter-Vickers and 0.64 goals per game without him. Expected goals, on the other hand, are a better measure of performance and, in this case, the average xG against the team with him on it is 0.76, but without him it jumps to 1.06 considerably.

When he is absent, the team’s success rate for defensive actions drops from 52% to 49%. Without the American, the opposition’s shooting volume increases from 6.12 to 8.57, and ominously, shots in the Celtic box increase from 4 to 6.57. When he is absent, the opposition seizes the ball in the Celtic box 14 times, compared to just 10.38 when the right-sided defender is there.

Celtic needs to give him every opportunity to heal in time for the final stretch, as there will be an international break shortly. They just lack the reserves necessary to support the low-key, low-risk defense of American international offers.

attacking the effectiveness

The pivotal games ahead will require ruthlessness in front of goal. StatsBomb claims that not much separates the two sides.

Based on their model, Celtic produces 2.06 to 1.88 more xG every match. Another relatively recent development is that Celtic now outperforms their competitors in terms of average xG per shot, ranging from 0.1 to 0.09. Even though it doesn’t seem like much, Celtic has an edge of 0.13 xG per game considering the average shooting volume per game. Unexpectedly, Celtic produces 0.45 to 0.42 xG more often than other teams in set piece scenarios.

Even while Rangers have more clear shots, they also produce more shots through intense pressing, which is less unexpected. Opta shows that Celtic creates 3.9 huge opportunities per game, whereas the city as a whole generates 3.66. Rangers outperform Celtic in counterattacking, generating 1.41 shots to Celtic’s 1.03 shots.

Opta indicates that Celtic creates more quality opportunities based on post-shot xG, averaging 2.65 to 2.31 per game. Additionally, they have a 1.91 to 1.62 disparity from post-shot xG for and against. Sadly, Celtic is underperforming their xG by 0.26 points per game, while the Blues are underperforming by less than 0.15 points.

From the standpoint of attacking efficiency, not much is in it. Although Celtic’s assault appears to be operating marginally better, they will need to see a higher favorable variance distribution in order for that to matter in the final stretch.

In brief

Celtic was always taking a chance by keeping Hart around for another season, as shown by their performance in the Champions League. That did not go well in that competition, and in comparison to their counterparts, Scotland is currently playing catch-up. This won’t change anytime soon, therefore Celtic will have to pray that the majority of shots that are sent towards their goal fall inside Hart’s dwindling spatial capability.

For Celtic, Carter-Vickers is vital to the team’s success because without him, the defense just cannot play as well. However, they must do so without running any further danger of severe harm. The defensive statistics as a whole support their opponents’ tendency to use two, three, or even four defensive midfielders. Celtic requires their defensive captain to be at least as frugal as their opponents. Although they are on the incorrect side of the xG variance patterns, Celtic do have the advantage in attack. They require optimal synergy in attack, which entails a stable squad and consistency from wide areas in particular, to change this.