This weekend, Celtic will focus on the Scottish Premiership as they get ready to welcome Kilmarnock, who are currently in fourth place, at Parkhead this afternoon.
During the week, the Hoops’ lead at the top of the table was reduced to simply goal differential as their opponents tied them for the same amount of games played and points.
It is impossible to ignore the reality that Brendan Rodgers’ team is very much in a race for the championship, which makes each and every game crucial to their hopes of winning the league.
The goals of Kyogo Furuhashi and Daizen Maeda helped the Bhoys defeat St. Mirren 2-0 in their most recent match, securing a spot in the SFA Cup quarterfinals.
Away from the attack, Rodgers might strengthen his team by displacing Stephen Welsh, who opened the game, so that Gustaf Lagerbielke can be unleashed at the beginning.
The form of Stephen Welsh this year
The 24-year-old defender has already played five Premiership games this season under Ange Postecoglou, despite only making four appearances in the league during the 2022–2023 season.
With his lack of strength in physical duels and passive defense, he has been a somewhat mediocre player at the center of the Hoops defense.
The aforementioned table illustrates how, in his five league games for the team, the Scottish defender has not intervened to stop many opposition attacks and has instead been outmatched by attackers on the deck.
While 27 members of the team have made at least one tackle for the club, 17 Celtic players have averaged more interceptions per game than Welsh.
In the team’s most recent Premiership game against Hibernian, the 24-year-old enforcer began but did not show much. In his 66 minutes on the field, he failed to make a single tackle, block, interception, or clearing and lost five of his eight duels.
Rodgers should be willing to bench the academy graduate, who has made 66 competitive appearances for the first team, as these figures indicate that he did not contribute much to his team’s defensive efforts.
Why it’s time to let Lagerbielke loose
The Sweden international was permanently signed from Elfsborg last summer, but he hasn’t had many chances to show off his skills this season.
The teenage defender has had a 650% increase in value on FootballTransfers despite seeing little playing time, and Rodgers may discover a new talent if he consistently inserts him into the lineup—especially ahead of Welsh.
His final Premiership game was played at the beginning of January, while his final divisional start was in September 2023 against Motherwell.
This season, the 23-year-old has made six league appearances for the Hoops, including four starts. In his 403 minutes on the field, Celtic has not allowed a goal, with the lone goal allowed during those six games being after he was substituted against Motherwell.
Given the small sample size, you could attempt to claim that this is all coincidence, but his individual numbers indicate that he was a major contributor to the defensive victory in those six games.
The 6 foot 4 behemoth was significantly more active defensively in his Premiership games for Celtic earlier this season than Welsh has been for the Hoops, as the table above shows.
In addition to his 0.2 tackles and interceptions combined per game, the Scottish defender has averaged 2.6 ball recoveries and 1.2 clearances.
This indicates that, on average, Lagerbielke is considerably more adept than the Bhoys academy graduate in stopping and neutralizing opponent attacks throughout a game.
In addition, Rodgers’ description of the “hungry” colossus reads as having won an incredible 87% of his ground duels in the Premiership this season—a success record that no other center-back in the team has attained.
In terms of both his physical and defensive qualities, it is also remarkably better than Welsh’s dismal ground duel success rate of 25%, indicating that Lagerbielke would be a huge improvement over the 24-year-old washout.
Because he may provide more to the squad than the Scottish lightweight can, Rodgers should eventually let him go from the start in 2024.
The rise of Liam Scales this season
Lagerbielke is a right-footed defender who might provide balance to Celtic’s play out of the back by complementing Scales’ left foot when he’s in possession.
The Ireland international, who played on loan with Aberdeen during the 2022–2023 season, has established himself as a consistent starter for the Scottish powerhouses this year, having already registered 23 league starts.
With a 65% duel success percentage during those 23 games, he has been a powerful force at the center of the Hoops defense, winning 70% of his ground clashes and 63% of his aerial contests.
This illustrates how, similar to Lagerbielke, Scales can outmaneuver opponents in the air and on the deck thanks to his physicality and positioning, but Welsh has been outmatched in ground duels by forwards.
In the Premiership this season, the 25-year-old enforcer has also produced more tackles and interceptions per game for Celtic than Welsh and Lagerbielke put together.
As the table above illustrates, Scales, who has completed 88% of his passes attempted in the Premiership, was also excellent against Hibernian in the most recent top-flight match.
Prior to Adam Idah’s stoppage-time winner from the penalty spot, he kept Hibs from bothering Joe Hart’s goal by winning 80% of his duels and making a total of six clearances and blocks.
Now that Lagerbielke and Scales have shown themselves as a duo this season, Rodgers needs to unleash them against Kilmarnock this afternoon in order to create a formidable tandem going forward.
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