Their closest challengers have the lowest average xG per shot conceded and so this is some cause for concern. Last season, Celtic were “top” of this league in that they had the lowest average xG per shot conceded.

How can the team go from the more miserly to the most profligate in terms of allowing the opposition to generate quality shots?

All shots

Here is the shot map for all shots conceded by Celtic in the league this season.

For comparative purposes, here is last season’s shot map:

The average xG per shot has alarmingly increased from 0.081 to 0.115 during open play—a 42 percent increase. Simply put, a lot more shots are being made in the direction of the Celtic goal. You can see this if you move your eyes back and forth between the two photographs.

In terms of reducing the average distance from which opponents had to shoot, Celtic was the team in the league last season. On average, other teams were attempting shots from 17.31 meters away. Celtic is currently bottom of the league this season, and their opponents are averaging shots from 14.98 meters, the closest distance any team permits to go at goal.

The other recurring tendency is that considerably more shots come from the Celtic left side of the defense than the right, which was noticeable last season but went unaddressed. It appears that Greg Taylor and Liam Scales on the left are less effective at stopping shots from the right than are Alistair Johnston and Cameron Carter-Vickers. This also applied to Carl Starfelt during the previous season.

Celtic concedes 0.59 xG on average per game when playing open play, which is only the second-lowest in the league. At 0.38, their defense was the most economical last season. Moreover, Celtic are just allowing more shots—7.61 as opposed to a league-best 6.82 in 2022–2023—the league.

Retaliation

Celtic had the fewest amount of xG given up in counterattack scenarios the previous season. Only 0.34 xG on average were obtained from such scenarios each game. That has increased to 0.52 this season, which is only the third-lowest in the league.

Set-asides

Celtic has already given up 4.48 xG in total from set pieces in 23 games this season, compared to 5.72 for the entire league campaign last year and six goals in 38 games. previous season. Celtic had the lowest league average of 0.15 xG given up from set pieces per game. That has increased to 0.19 this season, the second-lowest in the league.

Particularly, the xG conceded from corners has doubled, rising from a thrifty and league-best 0.07 xG per game to 0.14, which is currently the second-best in the league.

Why is there a decline?

The goalie and center backs are important players. Since they are typically the tallest players, they can handle a lot of high crosses from set plays, while the ‘keeper can use his hands.

The final season from the beginning Before Carl Starfelt’s injury healed in November, Cameron Carter-Vickers and Moritz Jenz had started all 11 games together, forming the back line with the American. As has been mentioned, this season’s backfield has been constantly shifting, and it has frequently been necessary to substitute a center-back during a match. The one constant has been the previously unknown Liam Scales.

Defense organization and consistency may be compromised by the center backs’ inconsistent play. At center back, six different lineups have been used. Together, Carter-Vickers and Liam Scales have made 14 appearances in 29 games, or less than half of the total number of fixtures. With six starting alignments, Scales and Gustaf Lagerbielke are the next most popular pair. Thirteen games have seen the substitution of one center back. The center backs are typically left in the game. Injury appears to have hindered Carter-Vickers.

One problem that currently exists and has not been resolved by recruitment is the left side, where more shots are surrendered than on the right. Teams have targeted that side of the Celtic defense and still do. All Celtic needs to do is make sure that the staff on the left are of the same caliber as those on the right.

There has been much discussion over Joe Hart’s declining ability. Due to positioning blunders, he is at the bottom of the league rankings. According to StatsBomb, this is:

The average distance that the goalkeeper is from being in the best position to face a shot. The deviation from the average is the distance from the “optimal” placement for each given goalkeeper location on a shot. This measure is modeled starting with the average location of goalkeepers from 20 shootings from similar locations.

Zach Hemmings of St. Mirren has the next-highest positional error figure at 1.68, while Hart is out of position on average by 1.89 (StatsBomb does not specify whether this is in centimeters or what). This could just be the ability to respond quickly enough, both mentally and physically, to know where to stand in anticipation of a shot.

This research contains nothing new, but basic shot data points out some of the main areas where Celtic is falling behind of their rivals and from the previous campaign. Additionally, everything will be covered throughout the January window.

I see.

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