Following their loss on Saturday night, Ange Postecoglou’s Tottenham Hotspur team’s fight to make it into the Champions League for the following season is probably going to be fierce.
With a win over Fulham this past weekend, Spurs knew they would go above Aston Villa and into the top four. Sadness, however, was to follow as Marco Silva’s team won 3-0 at Craven Cottage thanks to a strike from Sasa Lukic sandwiched between a brace from Rodrigo Muniz.
Not only did Spurs’ pride suffer, but so did their chances of making it into the Champions League the following year. Football.london has examined what Postecoglou’s team needs to accomplish in order to advance to the Champions League below.
What needs to happen for Tottenham to place in the top four
First things first: securing a spot in the Premier League’s top four guarantees automatic passage to the following season’s Champions League group stages. Spurs, who have played one fewer game than Unai Emery’s team (29), are presently three points behind fourth-place Aston Villa in the standings with 53 points.
If Spurs win their game in hand, they will tie Villa for the most points. With a 1-0 victory in the game at hand, Spurs (+17) and Villa (+18) would draw even on points, goals scored, and goals conceded. Spurs leads Villa by one goal in terms of goal difference. Put simply, it’s a close fight.
If Spurs and Villa win every game they have left to play, goal differential would determine fourth place. Spurs must therefore either simply outscore Villa in their remaining games (a single point would do it) or, in the event that both teams finish level on points, outscore them in terms of goal differential in order to secure fourth place.
This is when it gets a little complicated. The team with the most points from their head-to-head League matches this season would finish in fourth place if Spurs and Villa finished with the same amount of points, goal differential, and goals scored. Villa and Spurs have both defeated each other this season, but there’s still one more match that matters: Although Spurs defeated Emery’s team 4-0 at Villa Park on March 10, Spurs’ better away goals in head-to-head matches would tilt the scales in their favour. Villa had defeated Spurs 2-1 in north London in November.
With all the excitement around the match against Villa, Spurs also need to be keeping an eye on Manchester United, who, despite their erratic record, is all than capable of making a late push for fourth place.
How will Tottenham surpass United in the end?
Although Villa and Spurs’ mistakes over the weekend gave United a boost, they are still in sixth place with 47 points from 28 games, nine points behind Villa with one game remaining and six behind Spurs with the same amount of games played. Spurs would undoubtedly finish ahead of United in the standings if they secure 25 of the final 30 points that are available.
Spurs can only hope to reach that goal of 25 points if Erik ten Hag’s team wins all of their remaining games. Spurs’ job will be made simpler by any draws or defeats for United, but 24 points should be sufficient to finish ahead of United even with Ten Hag’s team sitting on a goal difference of 0 following a goalless season.
If United were to catch Tottenham, a difficult three-game stretch that could determine their fate—Spurs vs. Newcastle away on April 13, Arsenal at home on April 27, and Liverpool at home on May 4—will probably be critical.
Will the Champions League accept fifth place?
With all the talk of fourth place, one more thing to keep in mind is that fifth place in the Premier League might be sufficient to qualify for the Champions League according to UEFA regulations and coefficient rankings. Next season, UEFA plans to increase the competition’s size.
The top two countries in the UEFA coefficient rankings will receive two more spots in the group stages. The results of each member country in the three European competitions are used to determine these rankings.
As things stand, Spain is currently slightly ahead of Italy and Germany in the rankings, and England is almost certain to receive an additional Champions League qualifying berth. Thus, even if Villa or United surpass Spurs for fourth place, Spurs would still qualify for the Champions League group stage in 2024–2025 if they finish fifth.
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Jonathan Jonathan