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All four of the clubs listed below made the playoffs the previous year, and two of those teams played each other in the ALCS. Unfortunately for these fan bases, 2024 hasn’t gone as planned, which has left the front offices in a difficult position. Should they purchase and go for a late-game push to secure a Wild Card berth? Or is it time to give up some elite assets and invest for the future? Each team has until the end of the following month to determine how the trade deadline will go; there is no ideal course.
Toronto Blue Jays (record: 35-39; chances of making the playoffs: 4.3%)
Present Situation: The Blue Jays’ sole hope of qualifying for the postseason is via a Wild Card spot, since they are 15 games behind the Yankees for first place in the AL East. Toronto is now 5.5 games behind Kansas City for the last postseason berth and has a.500 batting average. With their current core group, the Blue Jays appeared to be in the midst of a winning window, and the front management has been treating the team like way for the past few years. But in the meantime, they have stagnated and allowed other AL East teams to pass them.
A player to keep an eye on is Vladmir Guerrero Jr., who is expected to be among the top targets at the 2024 trade deadline. He has one more year to be eligible for arbitration, and he is making $19.9 million this season. He has appeared in three consecutive All-Star games and has a lifetime OPS+ of 130. Guerrero is the kind of slugger that can elevate any contender’s lineup. Toronto has the option to try to cash in while his worth is higher or hold him for an additional year.
Watching Yusei Kikuchi is also recommended. He is currently in the latter year of a three-year, $36 million contract. He has been one of the AL’s most reliable starters over the past two seasons, with a 3.80 ERA, 109 ERA+, and 9.5 K/9. The Twins’ starting rotation has shown some irregularities, but Kikuchi might provide much-needed depth.
Tampa Bay Rays (36-39, 0.2% chance of qualifying for the postseason)
Present Situation: Tampa Bay has served as a model for how businesses can succeed on a tight budget. Unfortunately, some of their luck has run out this season as their power bats have been dormant until recently and their pitching has been subpar. With three teams ahead of them, the Rays are 5.5 games out of the last Wild Card slot and are positioned at the bottom of the AL East. The Rays may be able to claw their way back into the race over the course of the upcoming month, but it appears likely that the team will be selling in July.
Players to Keep an Eye on: The Rays are renowned for getting the most out of their bullpen, and several contending teams are looking to add dependable relievers for the stretch drive. Teams ought to be inquiring about left-handed reliever Garret Cleavinger. Having the greatest strikeout percentage in the Rays bullpen, he will be eligible for arbitration for the first time the following season. While Steven Okert has emerged as Minnesota’s best lefty in the bullpen, Jake Thielbar has had a difficult start to the season. Cleavinger’s addition will strengthen a team that is in contention for some of the tough lefty hitters that October brings.
Houston Astros: 17.1% to qualify for the postseason with a 35-40 record
Present Situation: With seven consecutive ALCS berths, four AL pennants, and two World Series titles, the Astros have been a junior-circuit juggernaut for the past ten years. But every dynasty must end, and it will be difficult for the club to bounce back in 2024 given its sluggish start. In the AL West, Houston is 8.5 games behind Seattle and only 0.5 games ahead of Texas. The Wild Card race is growing closer (6.5 games behind), but reaching.500 should take precedence over worrying about a postseason berth.
Player to Watch: In 2018, the Twins traded Gilberto Celestino and Jorge Alcalá to the Astros in exchange for Ryan Pressly. The Astros encouraged him to use his breaking pitches more frequently, notably his curveball, and he soon established himself as one of the best late-inning relievers in the game. Despite having a lifetime track record of success, his 2024 performance has fallen short due to control issues, which include a league-high six wild pitches. If he makes 50 appearances this season, his $14 million vesting option for 2025 becomes guaranteed. If he gets back on track, Houston might want to release him from his contract, and the Twins can use his playoff experience.
Rangers from Texas (34–40 record, 3.0% chance of making the playoffs)
Present circumstances:Similar to the Astros, the Rangers are clinging to slim playoff chances and are sitting well below.500. Despite having trouble towards the end of the regular season the previous year, Texas managed to qualify for the playoffs and win the World Series. This season, the Rangers knew exactly what they wanted to do: get through the first half of games while holding out for their best pitchers, Max Scherzer, Jacob deGrom, and Tyler Mahle, to recover from injuries in the second half. On paper, it looked like a fantastic concept, but they may not be able to get out of the hole they’ve dug for themselves.
Players to Keep an Eye on: Max Scherzer, a first-ballot Hall of Famer, will be a free agent at the end of the season. After playing big league baseball for fifteen years, there are only so many bullets in his arm. His best chance of winning this season is somewhere else than Texas, which is what he hopes to happen in October. For the last two months of the season, Scherzer would still be owed over $12 million, and the Twins would certainly lack the payroll room to cover that amount. He must prove that he’s healthy over the next month, and the teams must find a way to make the money work.
In the bullpen, Kirby Yates has been outstanding, while taking over the closer’s role for the Rangers. He’s posted a 1.07 ERA, with a 0.95 WHIP and a 33.3 K%. Yates is on a one-year deal, so he will likely be one of the hottest trade commodities before the end of July. Will the Twins pay a high cost for a reliever on an expiring contract?
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