When Yoshinobu Yamamoto signed a 12-year, $325 million deal with the Los Angeles Dodgers — after the team had already added Shohei Ohtani on a 10-year, $700 million contract — L.A. ended up with the two biggest fish in the free agent market. A number of teams had one or both of those new Dodgers at the top of their target list. What should those front offices do now?
Here’s a look at how I would proceed if I were running the teams that were finalists for Yamamoto (and in many cases, Ohtani), now left to look in another direction. These Plan Bs are informed by what I’m hearing these teams are already doing or considering, along with my own thoughts on their best options. The teams are listed in order of current roster quality per FanGraphs depth charts.
New York Yankees (ranked No. 4 in MLB, per FanGraphs)
The Yankees reportedly offered Yamamoto a 10-year, $300 million deal, and it seems certain that they will continue pursuing starting pitching. Gerrit Cole is the only reliable playoff starter among their current rotation options, with Carlos Rodon, Clarke Schmidt and Nestor Cortes as the other projected starters and the fifth spot a question mark. New York could even stand to add two starters and create a competition, because the odds are low that all three of those secondary options behind Cole make 25-plus starts and/or produce consistently.
I don’t think the top free agent options left fit what the Yankees need: Blake Snell has way too much Rodon-type risk to him, Jordan Montgomery will cost about what Rodon did last offseason and offer less upside while also not being the type of pitcher the Yankees have targeted (i.e., younger or with better raw stuff). After those two, the remaining free agent starters are mid-rotation types and New York needs more impact than that.
That leaves the trade market as the likeliest path to a splashy rotation upgrade. After Tyler Glasnow was dealt to the Dodgers (who else?), Chicago White Sox RHP Dylan Cease is the biggest name who could still be traded this winter. The asking price has been high, though, with the White Sox seemingly waiting until after Yamamoto signed to up the price, hoping to find a trade partner in the exact situation the Yankees are in now.
The package needed to land Cease would be steep, probably something like this: Chase Hampton (the Yankees’ top pitching prospect after the Juan Soto trade), another top 100-caliber prospect in outfielder Everson Pereira along with bat-first catcher Agustin Ramirez. That would leave New York with Will Warren and Clayton Beeter as two younger options behind the five projected MLB starters, with maybe a need for a veteran starter on a non-roster invite or an injury gamble type such as Brandon Woodruff on a two-year deal to round out the group.
The Yankees also need another late-inning relief arm, ideally a left-hander. There’s an obvious solution as the top reliever available, Josh Hader, is exactly that. I projected him for five years and $105 million, or basically the Edwin Diaz deal from last winter.
Making these moves would add around $30 million to the 2024 payroll, which is the AAV the Yankees offered Yamamoto. According to FanGraphs depth charts, that would also move the Yankees just ahead of the current version of the Dodgers as the on-paper second-best team in baseball, behind the Braves.
Toronto Blue Jays (No. 6-ranked team)
While the Yankees’ answer was pretty straightforward, the Jays’ situation is a little tougher to decode. The Jays have five proven big league starters under contract (Kevin Gausman, Chris Bassitt, Jose Berrios, Yusei Kikuchi and Alek Manoah) and their top prospect is a starter in the upper minors who will debut in 2024 (Ricky Tiedemann). So the Jays’ involvement in the Yamamoto sweepstakes suggests they don’t have a lot of confidence in Manoah giving them quality bulk innings, and that makes it reasonable to think they still want to add to this group. Tiedemann could also have an innings limit pitching in shorter stints, with Manoah treated as the sixth starter, so Toronto needs one more solid option.
I could see Toronto shopping in the roughly $20 million AAV market for Shota Imanaga, Marcus Stroman or Lucas Giolito, dipping down a tier for Sean Manaea or reuniting with Hyun Jin Ryu.
The other main issue for the Blue Jays to address is their need of a late-inning reliever to pair with Jordan Romano and Erik Swanson, but that doesn’t have to be a lefty given the presence of Genesis Cabrera and Tim Mayza. Jordan Hicks, Robert Stephenson, Yariel Rodriguez (who some teams see as a starter) and Hector Neris are all slightly different versions of addressing that issue for a roughly $7-11 million AAV.
Philadelphia Phillies (No. 7)
The Phillies’ pursuit of Yamamoto was both unsurprising, because he’s a splashy big-ticket pitcher and that’s the most Dave Dombrowski move, and a bit surprising, because it meant looking to add an ace before resolving the Zack Wheeler contract that expires after the 2024 season. With Yamamoto off the board, it makes sense to extend Wheeler. The youth will come from within with Andrew Painter and Mick Abel as potential impact starters a year or so away.
We’ve focused exclusively on pitching pivots from Yamamoto so far, but Philadelphia has a more pressing concern. With Rhys Hoskins a free agent after missing all of last season, Bryce Harper a full-time first baseman and Kyle Schwarber now the designated hitter, the three weakest spots in the lineup are all in the outfield. Johan Rojas is a defensive specialist playing for the league minimum in center field with clear everyday player upside. Brandon Marsh in left field had a big 2023 that was driven by a .397 BABIP, but he’s still a cheap, solid option. Nick Castellanos in right field is making $20 million for each of the next three seasons and posted just 0.2 WAR combined over the past two seasons; he’s a fine hitter but bad defensive outfielder, and he’s entering his age-32 season.
There’s a reason swapping Castellanos’ deal in a big trade for Mike Trout has been floated as a rumor. Center fielder Justin Crawford, the Phillies’ top hitting prospect, is tracking like a starter, but he might not show up until the 2026 season. Despite the need, there’s not an easy path to an upgrade, so I think the Phillies might stand pat when it comes to big moves.
New York Mets (No. 13)
Like the Phillies, the Mets’ first move shouldn’t be a splashy signing: Instead, they should extend their star player who is also set to hit free agency after 2024, Pete Alonso. He’ll make more than $20 million in his last year of arbitration because of his big counting stats, so his trade value is middling: something like a prospect that ranks in the 101-200 area of a prospect list. The David Stearns style of GM is usually loath to commit to five-plus years starting with the age-30 season to a right-right first baseman who isn’t an MVP candidate, but doing so is the right move for where the Mets are right now.
Beyond that, the Mets are treading water, not looking to hand out long-term deals to older players but signing short-term deals for complementary players instead or chasing the occasional young free agent.
This makes sense in a multiyear plan for contending, with about $75 million in expiring deals and another $50 million reduction in money being paid to other teams after the coming season, meaning there would still be around $100 million coming off the books after an Alonso extension. The top of the farm system, bolstered by adding prospects at the deadline, is also tracking to show up in New York for late 2024 or early 2025 and could free up more money to spend if those players can take full-time roles. This wave of prospects is hitter-heavy with infielders Jett Williams, Ronny Mauricio, Luisangel Acuna and Kevin Parada and outfielders Drew Gilbert, Alex Ramirez and Ryan Clifford. Right-handed pitchers Christian Scott and Blade Tidwell could also be factors.
For this winter, I think the Mets could stand to add a starting pitcher, a left-handed reliever and a right-handed outfielder.
There are a lot of options for the starting pitcher spot. Blake Snell and Jordan Montgomery would demand years/money that wouldn’t fit the Mets profile for this winter. Marcus Stroman and Shota Imanaga might be too old and require too many years. Lucas Giolito could possibly fit, but the lower tier that includes Yariel Rodriguez, Sean Manaea, Michael Lorenzen, Mike Clevinger, James Paxton, Hyun-Jin Ryu, Frankie Montas and Brandon Woodruff makes more sense for what the Mets are looking to do this winter.
I don’t think Josh Hader fits their profile for this winter, with relievers such as Matt Moore or Aroldis Chapman more likely options. Both Harrison Bader and Tommy Pham make sense for the outfielder spot depending on what kind of durability and defense they’re looking to add. None of these relievers or outfielders should require more than a two-year deal.
Boston Red Sox (No. 18)
I haven’t understood the plan being laid out by Red Sox ownership for some time now. It seems like the plan is to be as competitive as possible while not going into even the first tier of the CBT, which looks increasingly like a losing strategy unless the management team delivers A-plus execution for multiple years across multiple departments. Given the pressures of the job, it makes sense why execs that have achieved that and could be expected to give that kind of performance don’t want to take this job.
Boston has about $50 million to spend to stay under the threshold with a little space for a trade deadline addition. A right-handed-hitting infielder to pair with Enmanuel Valdez, a catcher to play ahead of Connor Wong/Reese McGuire and a starting pitcher are the three spots ripe for upgrades.
Gary Sanchez is the only even starting-adjacent catcher on the free agent market, and I think Boston decided not to go down that route. I would still be considering it.
For the infield spot, Jorge Polanco of the Twins is on the trade market and wouldn’t cost a ton in prospects to acquire — but he’s also 30 years old, not a star, and is a switch hitter who may block Valdez from a chance to prove himself. On the free agent market, Tim Anderson, Donovan Solano, Whit Merrifield and Amed Rosario are options and rank in that order in terms of fit for Boston, while Reds infielder Jonathan India is a solid option in the trade market.
If the Red Sox stand pat at catcher, they could have over $40 million to spend on pitching, and while they’re actually pretty deep on solid big league options, they need to add to the top-end of that group. Blake Snell, Jordan Montgomery, Shota Imanaga, Marcus Stroman and Lucas Giolito are the headliners, and you could pick one of the first two and then one of the final three. Those two additions would move Kutter Crawford and Tanner Houck into relief roles. I also might prefer to sign Josh Hader to get a late-inning lefty along with adding one of Imanaga, Stroman or Giolito, in that order.
San Francisco Giants (No. 19)
The Giants weren’t able to land a player on a megadeal in the last few winters, instead signing players to short-term free agent deals and platooning heavily. When they nail a free agent signing — Kevin Gausman or Carlos Rodon — that player leaves. When others flop — Michael Conforto, Tommy La Stella, Mitch Haniger — they get stuck with those contracts with a farm system that isn’t producing enough to paper over the openings.
San Francisco has fixed this situation a bit internally, with Kyle Harrison, Marco Luciano and Patrick Bailey arriving as support around Logan Webb, and they finally handed out a nine-figure deal this offseason by signing Jung-hoo Lee for six years, $113 million. The Giants are still $40 million behind last year’s payroll. Getting there again would bring them to the first CBT threshold with a little midseason spending room left. The biggest needs are shortstop cover for Luciano if things don’t immediately work, another outfield/designated hitter option and a starting pitcher.
For shortstop, there are some one-options in the $6-11 million range like Tim Anderson, Amed Rosario or maybe another go-round with Brandon Crawford. There are a couple corner bats available, but all are eight-figure options: Teoscar Hernandez, J.D. Martinez, Jorge Soler. They could also go bigger by signing Matt Chapman to play third base and moving J.D. Davis into that corner/DH role. When it comes to the rotation, they’re rumored to be the landing spot for Blake Snell, with Marcus Stroman, Shota Imanaga and Lucas Giolito the lower-cost options.
If I’m making the call and required to stay within that budget, Imanaga, Anderson and J.D. Martinez would be my additions.
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