The departure of Alexander Mattison might just be the start of a backfield makeover.
Alexander Mattison’s release by the Minnesota Vikings on Thursday night came as a surprise to a lot of people, but the message was quite obvious.
The Vikings want to increase the effectiveness of their running game, and they may need to make some changes in order to do so after struggling to run the ball under Kevin O’Connell for the previous two seasons.
“As you go through the cut-up evaluation process after the season, you can really kind of gauge things that worked well, things you need to improve on and things that I could do better as a coach,” O’Connell said during the NFL Scouting Combine. “But then you see some of the individual performances that maybe don’t always jump out on the stat sheet but it was a critical player here and there and then we’ve got some young players in the room as well.”
O’Connell’s remarks offer a number of ways to strengthen a running game that finished the previous season ranked 29th overall (1,553 yards) and 23rd in yards per carry (4.0). The Vikings may resurrect the ground attack by doing some things schematically in addition to bringing a new back to the room.
Here are a few choices and their potential effects on the Vikings in 2024.
1. Assign Ty Chandler the leadback position.
Fans of fantasy football rejoiced with Mattison’s release, as it made way for Chandler to take the lead in 2024.
Chandler was praised by O’Connell for his progress during the season after he ran for 461 yards and three touchdowns and caught 21 receptions for 159 yards the previous year. Chandler was a former fifth-round choice.
“I believe Ty’s season-ending performance was a true plus,” O’Connell stated. “As he enters year two and year three, he will have a great opportunity to keep growing. I believed that it was incredibly beneficial for our team to watch him step up and begin to assert himself.”
Chandler had a lot going for him, but he still needs to improve in a few areas.
When a rushing back gains at least 40% of the yards needed on first down, 60% on second down, and 100% on third or fourth down, Pro Football Reference tracks their success rate. Chandler’s 45.1 percent success percentage over 102 carries last season was not much better than Mattison’s 45 percent, which placed him 38th out of 48 qualifiers.
If Chandler is unable to improve, the Vikings still have internal options on the field, such as 2023 seventh-round pick DeWayne McBride, who the Vikings had a starter grade on during their pre-draft process, and Cam Akers, who appeared to send a message to the Vikings ahead of his impending free agency on Instagram.
However, Chandler might start for the Vikings next season and have a ton of opportunities if they don’t make any outside moves.
2. In free agency, include a running back
Due to the availability of multiple prominent running backs in this year’s class, the declining value of running backs has had a knock-on impact on free agency.
The exclusive group includes Saquon Barkley, who has struggled with injuries throughout his six seasons with the New York Giants, and Derrick Henry, who just finished his fifth 1,000-yard rushing season in the previous five years with the Tennessee Titans.
However, according to Pro Football Focus, both backs and former Las Vegas Raiders running back Josh Jacobs are anticipated to receive over $10 million in free agency, thus forcing the Vikings to consider other options.
As a member of a committee, Tony Pollard might be a target, but his $8 million price tag might be too much to pay. Austin Ekeler, who turns 29 in May, has the potential to be useful both on the ground and in the air.
With a 54.1 percent success rate, D’Andre Swift finished sixth among running backs last season. However, he will also cost roughly $6 million, which is the same amount the Vikings refused to give David Montgomery when he was a free agent last year.
To add depth, the Vikings might go with a cheap acquisition like J.K. Dobbins, A.J. Dillon, or Zack Moss, but they will have alternatives if they choose to add players via free agency.
3. A shift in outlook
Although it doesn’t entirely depend on the players in the backfield, the Vikings might improve the talent in the running back room. Under O’Connell, Minnesota’s rushing strategies have been ineffective, which may force some adjustments elsewhere to establish the run.
Although there were a few weak points, the Vikings’ offensive line finished the previous season ranked 10th in PFF’s run-blocking rankings. Ed Ingram placed 32nd despite seeing a little increase, and pending free agent Dalton Risner ranked 46th out of 54 qualifying guards with a minimum of 736 snaps in run-blocking grade last season.
Additionally, Garrett Bradbury’s run-blocking grade of 19th out of 31 qualifying centers may indicate that some new faces up front are needed.
However, the Vikings might also have to make adjustments from the sidelines. With 393 running attempts last season, the Vikings ranked 28th; perhaps they should abandon their zone-based offense in favor of a more potent one.
Sean McVay, O’Connell’s coach, made a similar change with the Los Angeles Rams, implementing a gap scheme. With a 59.6 percent success rate last season, Kyren Williams placed second among running backs. The change also helped Kevin Dotson become PFF’s No. 2 guard.
Dotson is this year’s best free agent guard available, and O’Connell’s relationship with McVay may facilitate an easier adjustment. The Vikings may be more effective on the ground if they improve their plan and line.
4. Select a quarterback.
The most probable course of events is for the Vikings to select another back in the draft. While there isn’t a prospect with the same level of potential as Bijan Robinson or Jahmyr Gibbs, who were selected in the first round of the previous draft, there are a few whose yards after contact could be useful.
The previous season, the Vikings had trouble in this area as Mattison averaged 2.76 yards after contact (ranked 38th out of 59 qualifiers) while Chandler averaged 2.86 yards after contact (ranked 32nd). In contrast, Robinson had averaged 3.1 yards after contact (14th) in his first season, while Gibbs, who the Vikings were linked to last spring, had averaged 3.0 yards after contact (18th).
Three players could enhance this area: Audric Estime of Notre Dame (4.27 yards after contact), Bucky Irving of Oregon (3.99 yards after contact), and Jaylen Wright of Tennessee (4.35 yards after contact). All three would be under a cheap rookie deal that would allow them to fill out a committee.
Over the past few seasons, NFL front offices have acted in this manner, choosing to locate the next Isaiah Pacheco rather than spend money on a free agent back. It wouldn’t be shocking if the Vikings tried to improve their running game the next season and used a pick on a back in an effort to preserve flexibility.
