Postseason previews typically entail forecasting the outcome of a game. However, taking a historical look at the formation of teams is equally valuable.
In college football, talent is more important than virtually everything else. Since the 247Sports Team Talent Composite’s launch in 2015, every national champion has appeared in the top 10 of those rankings. Further back, every champion team that emerged from the Internet recruitment era (which began in 2002) had at least one player who had previously been a five-star recruit.
College football, however, has changed in a short amount of time, and is now different. Previously, organizations could only assemble teams through high school recruiting; however, today they have the option to enhance or expand their rosters through the NCAA transfer portal. Let’s take a look at the roster construction of the four playoff teams before of the two most important games of the college football season. It typically gives away a lot about how the games will proceed.
Note: Bud Elliott’s Blue-Chip Ratio, a statistic that assesses if a team has more than 50% of blue-chip players on its roster, is used in this narrative in addition to the Team Talent Composite. Since 2013, every national champion has reached the blue-chip level.
The foundation of Michigan is growth and retention. The two-time Big Ten champion Wolverines don’t hire in the manner you might anticipate. Ohio State, their nemesis, is a perennial top-five recruiting heavyweight. Michigan, on the other hand, has only been ranked 12th nationally in recruitment average during the previous four years.
Alright. not superior. However, the Wolverines recruit in a deliberate manner. Michigan targets specific kinds of recruits. The Wolverines are looking for players with strong morals, intelligence, and ceilings that can grow. These three characteristics enable a potentially underrated recruit to become an NFL Draft selection after they join the school.
It has consistently proven effective.
Maybe every year, the Wolverines won’t have a top-10 recruiting class. However, they do place very near the top of the NFL Draft each year. After Alabama, Georgia, and LSU, Michigan has generated 32 draft picks since 2020, ranking fourth overall during that time.
If most of Michigan’s 2022 Playoff team hadn’t decided to make a mass return, that figure would have been substantially higher. The Wolverines entered the season with significantly more experience than one would have thought because to the decisions made by likely draft picks Blake Corum, Mike Sainristil, Zach Zinter, and Michael Barrett to stay on the team.
With the addition of a few significant transfers, including edge defender Joshua Stewart, tight end AJ Barner, and center Drake Nugent, the Wolverines built a team that should result in many first-round selections in the 2024 NFL Draft.
5 Important Michigan Players that Are Recruits
1. QB J.J. McCarthy, ranked No. 6 in the class of 2021 and 38th overall
2. Blake Corum, RB—No. 19 RB and 232nd overall in the 2020 class
3. Roman Wilson, wide receiver; No. 38 WR, 219th overall in the 2020 class
4. Michael Barrett, LB – No. 70 athlete, three-star 86 rating in the 2018 class
5. Will Johnson, CB: ranked No. 4 CB and 35th overall in the 2022 class
Three Important Transfers from Michigan
1. Drake Nugent, C (4-star, via Stanford) — ranked No. 8 IOL and 141st overall
2. Joshua Stewart, Edge (four stars, via Coastal Carolina) — ranked No. 4 EDGE and 70th overall
3. Indiana-bred AJ Barner, TE (4-star) — No. 79 overall, No. 7 TE
NO. 2 WASHINGTON HUSKIES
0 Five-Stars: Does That Match the Blue Chip Ratio?No
Washington won’t challenge for a national championship, based on its talent profile. In terms of shared characteristics with former title winners, it is inferior to practically any recruiting metrics you can think of: You name it: five-star recruits, the Blue Chip Ratio, the Team Talent Composite, etc.
However, collegiate football has entered a new era, and the Huskies possess an advantage over every other playoff team: a sixth-year quarterback with a plethora of potential NFL wide outs and a finalist for the Heisman Trophy.
That formula means Washington can score with anybody, which is crucial, but it doesn’t guarantee a championship—as previous competitors like Oklahoma and Ohio State can attest to.
The centerpiece of Washington’s offensive is Michael Penix Jr. Penix, a quarterback transfer from Indiana who resurrected his career in excellent condition and after joining forces with Washington coach Kyle DeBoer, is the most accomplished and successful quarterback in the playoffs. Penix, a 23-year-old who has seen and experienced college football’s highs and lows, is undefeated in his first nine games with the Huskies against top-25 opponents.
Penix benefits from having exceptional skill talent all around him.Rome Odunze, an All-American and potential first-round NFL pick, with 1,428 yards and 81 catches. To complete the finest wide receiver trifecta in the nation are Ja’Lynn Polk (60 catches, 1,000 yards) and Kalen McMillan (34 catches, 468 yards in 5 games). Odunze and McMillan, Washington’s 2020 wide receiver class, are perhaps the team’s best players. As underclassmen, neither had extraordinary success under former coach Jimmy Lake. But with an outstanding quarterback in DeBoer’s system, they’ve emerged as the game-changers that Washington supporters had long thought they would.
With Dillon Johnson, one of the finest rushing backs in the nation, and an offensive line that won the Joe Moore Award, it’s simple to see why the Huskies have a top-five offense.
Although Washington’s defense isn’t the best in the country—it ranks 66th in yards allowed per play—defensive end Braden Trice and walk-on-turned-All-American linebacker Eddiefuan Ulofoshio are real playmakers in the front seven. Trice is among the nation’s top edge rushers, and Ulofoshio is a superb cover linebacker.
Although Washington’s passing yards allowed per game rank 122nd nationally, the unit actually ranks 14th nationally in Pro Football Focus’ coverage measure, which may lead one to believe that the secondary is weak. There are a couple too many chunk passes that the Huskies allow. On the whole, though, they’ve performed far better versus the pass than the statistics indicate.
5 Important Washington Players who are Recruits
1. Rome Odunze, WR; No. 22 WR, No. 136 overall in the 2020 class
2. Jalen McMillan, wide receiver; No. 6 WR and 38nd overall in the 2020 class
Troy Fautanu, LT, ranked No. 12 OG and No. 214 overall in the 2018 class
4. Bralen Trice, DE – No. 37 WDE, with a three-star 88 rating in the 2019 class
5. Edefuan Ulofoshio, LB – Ranked No. 196 OLB in 2018 class with a two-star rating of 76.
Three Important Transfers from Washington
1. No. 247 overall, No. 23 quarterback, Michael Penix Jr., quarterback (3-star via Indiana).
2. No. 60 overall and No. 4 RB is Dillon Johnson, RB (4-star via Mississippi State).
3. Jabbar Muhammad, CB (four stars via Oklahoma State): ranked No. 30 CB and 167th overall
NO. 3 TEXAS LONGHORNS
I’m sure you’re asking what makes this talented Texas team any different from all the previous talented Texas teams. There are two responses to that:
1. There is no denying that this Texas team, with its talent, is better than any that has emerged in recent memory. With respect to the 2023 Team Talent Composite, the Longhorns are ranked 913th. With just two five-star players, the Sugar Bowl-winning squad from 2018 had a mere 861 players.
Texas is flexing its NIL muscles under coach Steve Sarkisian; few teams have profited more from NIL since its inception than the Longhorns. Texas has drawn back-to-back top-five classes. With Sarkisian’s background in offensive development and a staff full of top recruiters, the Longhorns are attracting players at a rate not seen since the glory days of former coach Mack Brown.
2. Texas is giving the lines of scrimmage top priority. Texas only selected six offensive and defensive linemen overall in the NFL Drafts from 2011 to 2020. For comparison, just last year saw five such players selected by Georgia. For over a decade, Texas was unable to reliably acquire and produce elite lineman.
With Sarkisian’s arrival, that has altered. Between the 2022 and 2023 classes, the Longhorns signed 12 elite offensive and defensive linemen, two of which were five-star O-linemen. They are also under development.
Kyle Flood, the O-line coach, transformed the frequently troubled Texas O-line into one of the finest in the country. The Longhorns allow the fourth-most pressures per snap in the country. In that category, the Longhorns finished 82nd in 2021—Sarkisian’s first season in the position. Conversely, opponents have found it extremely difficult to run inside thanks to Texas’ potent interior duo of T’Vondre Sweat and Byron Murphy, as well as former five-star Alfred Collins, four-star Vernon Broughton, and transfer Trill Carter. Texas’s physical linebackers and secondary players are able to move from sideline to sideline and attack the ball because of their power. Just two seasons later, this explosive combo has elevated a struggling defense from 2021 (ranked 102nd in yards allowed per play) to a top-25 squad.
Thanks to its abundance of talent at wide receiver, tight end, and running back as well as its recruiting and transfer advantages, Texas excels in a few other crucial areas. However, the depth and talent up front set the 2023 Longhorns apart from any previous squad that has come before them.
Five Important Texas Recruits
1. No. 13 WR and 100th overall in the 2021 class is Xavier Worthy, WR.
2. Kelvin Banks, OT – No. 3 OT and 30th overall in the 2022 class
3. Ja’Tavion Sanders, TE: ranked No. 1 athletic and 30th overall in the 2021 class
4. T’Vondre Sweat, DT – No. 27 DT, with a three-star 89 rating in the 2019 class
5. Byron Murphy, DT – No. 39 DL, four-star 90 rating in the 2021 class
Three Important Transfers from Texas
1. Quinn Ewers, quarterback (five-star via Ohio State): ranked second overall and second among quarterbacks
2. The No. 3 overall and No. 1 wide receiver is Adonai Mitchell, WR (five-star via Georgia).
3. Ryan Watts, CB (Ohio State three-star) – ranked No. 111 overall and No. 12 CB
NO. 4 ALABAMA CRIMSON TIDE
I’m sure you’re asking what makes this talented Texas team any different from all the previous talented Texas teams. There are two responses to that:
1. There is no denying that this Texas team, with its talent, is better than any that has emerged in recent memory. With respect to the 2023 Team Talent Composite, the Longhorns are ranked 913th. With just two five-star players, the Sugar Bowl-winning squad from 2018 had a mere 861 players.
Texas is flexing its NIL muscles under coach Steve Sarkisian; few teams have profited more from NIL since its inception than the Longhorns. Texas has drawn back-to-back top-five classes. With Sarkisian’s background in offensive development and a staff full of top recruiters, the Longhorns are attracting players at a rate not seen since the glory days of former coach Mack Brown.
2. Texas is giving the lines of scrimmage top priority. Texas only selected six offensive and defensive linemen overall in the NFL Drafts from 2011 to 2020. For comparison, just last year saw five such players selected by Georgia. For over a decade, Texas was unable to reliably acquire and produce elite lineman.
With Sarkisian’s arrival, that has altered. Between the 2022 and 2023 classes, the Longhorns signed 12 elite offensive and defensive linemen, two of which were five-star O-linemen. They are also under development.
Kyle Flood, the O-line coach, transformed the frequently troubled Texas O-line into one of the finest in the country. The Longhorns allow the fourth-most pressures per snap in the country. In that category, the Longhorns finished 82nd in 2021—Sarkisian’s first season in the position. Conversely, opponents have found it extremely difficult to run inside thanks to Texas’ potent interior duo of T’Vondre Sweat and Byron Murphy, as well as former five-star Alfred Collins, four-star Vernon Broughton, and transfer Trill Carter. Texas’s physical linebackers and secondary players are able to move from sideline to sideline and attack the ball because of their power. Just two seasons later, this explosive combo has elevated a struggling defense from 2021 (ranked 102nd in yards allowed per play) to a top-25 squad.
Thanks to its abundance of talent at wide receiver, tight end, and running back as well as its recruiting and transfer advantages, Texas excels in a few other crucial areas. However, the depth and talent up front set the 2023 Longhorns apart from any previous squad that has come before them.
Five Important Texas Recruits
1. No. 13 WR and 100th overall in the 2021 class is Xavier Worthy, WR.
2. Kelvin Banks, OT – No. 3 OT and 30th overall in the 2022 class
3. Ja’Tavion Sanders, TE: ranked No. 1 athletic and 30th overall in the 2021 class
4. T’Vondre Sweat, DT – No. 27 DT, with a three-star 89 rating in the 2019 class
5. Byron Murphy, DT – No. 39 DL, four-star 90 rating in the 2021 class
Three Important Transfers from Texas
1. Quinn Ewers, quarterback (five-star via Ohio State): ranked second overall and second among quarterbacks
2. The No. 3 overall and No. 1 wide receiver is Adonai Mitchell, WR (five-star via Georgia).
3. Ryan Watts, CB (Ohio State three-star) – ranked No. 111 overall and No. 12 CB
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