Five Crucial Elements for Colts to Beat Falcons

On Christmas Eve, the Atlanta Falcons and Indianapolis Colts will play a cross-conference game at Mercedes-Benz Stadium.

Following an impressive victory over the Pittsburgh Steelers, the Indianapolis Colts are now definitely in the running for the AFC playoffs. But instead of celebrating a victory, the Atlanta Falcons are mourning a devastating defeat at the hands of the uninspired Carolina Panthers, which has left them with a 6-8 record and forced Arthur Smith to make yet another quarterback switch.

Will the Colts reach 9-6 and maintain their progress toward the postseason? Or, with a more reliable passer behind center, can the Falcons make a comeback? It’s time to discuss the five factors that Indiana needs to win on Sunday.

#1. Blake Freeland Bounce Back

Tennessee Titans defensive end Denico Autry (96) battles with Indianapolis Colts offensive tackle Blake Freeland (73) during their game at Nissan Stadium in Nashville, Tenn., Sunday, Dec. 3, 2023. — Denny Simmons / The Tennessean / USA TODAY NETWORK

Rookie fourth-rounder out of BYU, Blake Freeland, has had to step into the starting role at tackle and face the likes of Myles Garrett, Trey Hendrickson, and Aaron Donald, among other star pass rushers. However, last week, Steelers sack artist and former NFL Defensive Player of the Year, T.J. Watt, made Freeland look like he was on skates.

While right guard Will Fries also struggled in pass protection, nobody was worse than Freeland on the afternoon in relief of starter Braden Smith at RT. Below are the Pro Football Focus grades for Freeland on 67 offensive snaps from the 30-13 victory:

Pass-Blocking Grade: 34.6
Run Blocking Grade: 35.2
Pressures Allowed: 4 (tied with Fries for team lead)

While the Falcons don’t have the talent that matches the aforementioned names, they can still take advantage of a rookie if he’s off his game. With Smith likely out again, it’s looking like Freeland will start. Look for him to try and bounce back in an easier matchup in the trenches.

#2. Contain Falcon’s Ground Game

Dec 10, 2023; Atlanta, Georgia, USA; Atlanta Falcons running back Bijan Robinson (7) runs against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers during the second half at Mercedes-Benz Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Dale Zanine-USA TODAY Sports — © Dale Zanine-USA TODAY Sports

The Falcons aren’t threatening in the passing game, but they do sit ninth in the NFL in rushing yards per game with 126.4. This is largely due to the tandem of rookie Bijan Robinson and Tyler Allgeier in the backfield. Since Atlanta has been below average passing the ball, they’ve turned to these two for a lot of offensive responsibility.

Robinson has started his NFL career well in Year 1, with 176 rushes for 801 yards (4.6 avg) and four rushing scores. He’s also caught 41 passes for 323 yards and three receiving scores. Look for Robinson to be the focal point with the Taylor Heinicke taking over for Desmond Ridder.

Allgeier is more of the large power back, rushing the ball 166 times for 577 yards (3.5 avg). He’s grabbed a total of 13 catches for 89 yards to add to his rushing numbers. While WR Drake London and TE Kyle Pitts can be threatening, they aren’t going to have the same impact if Atlanta cannot run the football.

The Colts are going to have to stop these two from running all over the place. Otherwise, a veteran like Heinicke will adjust to this well and could find opportunities downfield to London or Pitts.

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