Situated barely a few feet above the launch pad, their current league standings aim of qualifying for European football appears to be an enormous ambition. Most impartial judges believe that Hibs’ odds of unexpectedly rising to the top are about the same as NASA’s giving of day tours to the moon for £6.50 per person.
But as the most astute individuals in the most astute working groups at Cape Kennedy will attest, the best way to approach a lengthy journey is to divide it into more doable segments. All that Nick Montgomery’s team will search for is a spot in the bottom half of the top six. The elite of the Scottish Premiership cannot afford to fall behind when they cast off the lower half.
There are plenty of chances for Hibs, who are presently ranked seventh, to pass at least one of the teams above them over the eight games left before the deadline. To begin with, five of the games are against teams that are at the other end of the standings. Even though Hibs is now five points ahead of Saturday’s visitors to Easter Road, Monty’s team would have everything to play for if they defeated Dundee at home.
But this weekend’s triumph must come first. Because they’ll need all the momentum they can muster, according to history, math, and common sense.
With the exception of the one Covid-shortened season, the five most recent complete seasons in the Scottish Premiership show that 44 points is the average number needed to finish in the top six after 33 games. If you hit that mark, you’ll probably find yourself on the split’s right side. Should you lose, you might have to spend the last five rounds of games kicking around with the relegation dodgers.
Currently, with eight games remaining, the Hibs have 27 points. They will therefore require 17 of the next 24 points to be sure. Scary but manageable? For a team that has attempted to score three of the last twenty-four points?
Let’s break it down game by game (opponent’s current league position in brackets):
DUNDEE (6) H 24.02.24
The story so far: A dull nil-nil draw at Easter Road in September was followed by a 2-1 Hibs win at Dens in November.
Prediction: 3 points – or Hibs are really in trouble.
HEARTS (3) A 28.02.24
So far: Brilliant fightback to claim a 2-2 draw at Tynecastle in October was followed by the disappointment of Lawrence Shankland scoring the only goal – in injury time – at Easter Road just after Christmas.
Prediction: 1 point.
ROSS COUNTY (11) H 02.03.24
So far: Drew 2-2 at Easter Road on Hallowe’en before weather forced the late postponement of their pre-Christmas clash in Dingwall.
Prediction: 3 points.
ROSS COUNTY (11) 13.03.24
So far: See above. This is the game rearranged from December.
Prediction: 3 points.
LIVINGSTON (12) 16.03.24
So far: A 3-2 home loss to Livi in August saw Lee Johnson dismissed. Montgomery steered his team to a scrappy 1-0 away win – their last league victory, to date – on December 9.
Prediction: 3 points.
RANGERS (1) 30.03.24
So far: Played two, lost two. Scored zero, conceded seven.
Prediction: 0 points.
ST JOHNSTONE (10) H 06.04.24
So far: Hibs were two points off third place and already had a 2-0 home win over Saints in the bag when they pitched up to McDiarmid Park on December 16. A 1-0 loss there marked the beginning of their current eight-game winless streak in the league.
Prediction: 1 point.
MOTHERWELL (9) A 13.04.24
So far: A 2-1 loss at Fir Park in August, then a 2-2 draw at Easter Road in January.
Prediction: 1 point.
That appears to be a really impressive run of results on paper. Still, it only comes out to a total of 15 points, which puts Monty’s team at 42 at the half. This could be sufficient. Perhaps. with some assistance from others.
Could Hibs overcome Craig Levein’s unavoidably obstinate St Johnstone team at home? Is there any chance they’d have the fortitude and perseverance to win at Fir Park if it came down to final day? They were able to. They could. They might need to. On Saturday, it begins by gaining some much-needed altitude at Dundee’s expense.
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