Assessing Luka Doncic’s MVP case

The Mavericks’ success this season has been largely dependent on Luka Doncic, who has played on an other planet. Despite significant injuries that have caused lineup inconsistencies, Dallas is currently 32-23 on the season. Doncic has played in 47 of these 55 games, averaging 34.3 points per game, which is the highest since James Harden did so in 2020.

Luka Doncic scores 73 points in Friday night game

MVP discussions have been increasingly heated as the season draws to a close. Ever since his second-season performance of fourth in the vote, Doncic has been mentioned in debates for the MVP award every year. Remember, he was only twenty years old at the time. He still hasn’t taken home the trophy four seasons later. Granted, with Nikola Jokic and Joel Embiid ruling the game, Doncic’s timing hasn’t been ideal for this “narrative-based” honor. Let’s talk about why Doncic should be given more respect in light of his continued historic performance before he is given the trophy.

Reliability during a turbulent season

Everybody who has watched the Mavericks this season is aware of how their season has been hindered by injuries on the squad. Since the roster is inconsistent, it is challenging to evaluate this team’s potential when healthy. Basketball Index indicates that non-Luka Mavericks have missed 147 games so far this season. Doncic has been a constant this season, even though the Mavericks have had trouble being steady. Thus far this season, he has averaged 34.2 points, 8.8 rebounds, and 9.5 assists per game. Considering all of the injuries this Mavericks squad has endured, it is incredibly underappreciated that they are currently 32-23. To remember Doncic’s impact on the Mavericks this year, think back to his 73-point outing against Atlanta. Dallas needed every bit of output he could get, whether it came from his own scoring or setting up others for shots.

He’s improved his technique.

Observing Doncic every night, his attitude seems distinct from previous seasons. He exudes a more sophisticated demeanor than we are accustomed to seeing from him. He has focused on getting better in the areas where he has been criticized for specific aspects of his game. Though far from ideal, things are improving.

Protection

In crucial moments of the game, Doncic moves quicker and more deliberately on defense. He also appears more driven. He still has trouble playing transition defense and frequently gets into heated arguments with referees when foul calls go uncalled. Having said that, he has become more proficient at post-defense and isolation defense. In terms of isolation efforts, he is giving up 0.84 points per possession, placing him in the 70.8 percentile. Furthermore, he is in the 97.1 percentile for post-up attempts, giving up 0.61 points per possession. Now, these numbers don’t mean that Doncic is a top-tier defender; rather, they’re not the “end all, be all.” But given Doncic’s reputation as a defensive liability, I believe it is crucial to take notice of these numbers. Usually, a team will try to isolate and post-up Doncic directly, and so far, Doncic has withstood those attempts.

Recall how the Western Conference Finals saw him being pursued on purpose? Those kinds of moments don’t happen as often as they used to. Doncic has been serious about his conditioning, and it showed in games like the one on February 12 against the Wizards, where Dallas prevailed in the fourth quarter. Deni Avdija was having a field day offensively thanks to Doncic, and the Mavericks allowed Washington to score just 16 points in the fourth quarter once he eventually locked in defensively. Even though he might not play defense every possession, in the last moments he becomes more focused. Even though he must put in a lot of work and effort on the offensive end, he has demonstrated exceptional defensive effort this season that is deserving of praise.

Engaging in off-ball play

Doncic’s iso-heavy offensive style has drawn criticism throughout his career. “He’s a ball hog” comments have been made widely. The plain fact is that the Mavericks haven’t had any non-Luka players who can put the ball in the court, except from Jalen Brunson and Kyrie Irving. The Mavericks now have players who can produce without the help of Doncic thanks to the arrivals of Irving and PJ Washington as well as the growth of Josh Green and Jaden Hardy. Doncic can now play without holding the ball in his hands and move the offensively in ways that Maverick supporters have been begging him to ever since he joined the team.

To add a few more numbers, Doncic has roughly 2.5 spot-up opportunities each game and averages 1.13 points per spot-up possession. He is averaging 1.0 points per possession when he cuts to the basket. Remember that these are tiny sample sizes. But when Luka wanders around without the ball, the offense looks good and the numbers are effective. I would want to see it happen more often since, as the data show, it is effective. Perhaps they are holding onto these opportunities for the playoffs so their opponents don’t have a lot of footage on these activities. It gives the offensive a more fluid and visually appealing appearance. In the video below, Doncic can be seen moving off the ball, cutting to the hoop, and finishing at the rim.

Jazz 100-103 Mavericks: Luka Doncic is already better than Michael Jordan,  a stat he'll be on top of forever | Marca

Another video that shows Doncic searching for a spot-up opportunity is this one. Although Exum ended up scoring on this possession, it was encouraging to watch Doncic play even without the ball in his hands.

The seriousness of his offense

Only players from this period, like Giannis Antetokounmpo, LeBron James, Nikola Jokic, and Stephen Curry, play with the same amount of gravity on offense as Doncic. More than any other player in the league, he consistently puts up figures that resemble those of a video game every night. Teams must choose whether to attempt to center their defense on stopping Doncic or his supporting group. He handles every kind of coverage like he’s seen it a billion times and moves out of double teams with ease.

Doncic will undoubtedly have a claim for the league’s Most Valuable Player honor if the Mavericks can maintain their winning streak. He has proven that he is a serious practitioner of his art and gets better every season. MFFLs believe that winning an MVP is not as important as winning a championship and returning to Dallas. Seeing how far Doncic can take this Maverick team excites me.

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