The quarterback carousel never stops turning. However, even if a lot of NFL teams are confident in their signal-caller situation going into the 2024 campaign, many others are dealing with uncertainty at the most crucial position in football.
Kirk Cousins, a 35-year-old free agent whose contract expires on March 13 and who is recovering from a ruptured right Achilles, requires the Vikings to make a decision. Chicago, their NFC North opponents, must decide whether to take a rookie with the top pick in April or keep their 2021 first-round pick, Justin Fields. The Falcons, on the other hand, require a quarterback to round out a talented squad. There will be significant changes soon.
We will thus try to solve the quarterback riddle by projecting the Week 1 starting for each of the 32 NFL teams before the 2024 offseason gets underway. We divided the quarterback situation for each team into four categories: starting quarterbacks who are almost certain to stay with the team they played for in 2023; solid bets, or players who should return as starters but aren’t locks; teams looking to bring in an established quarterback; and rookie landing spots, or teams that require a first-year quarterback to step in right away. Now let’s get started.
Cardinals of Arizona
2024 starting projection: Kyler Murray
Situation: Relatively safe wager
I used to believe that if Murray were to start for the Cardinals in 2024, that would be a shocking development. However, the Cardinals managed to avoid the first three draft picks, and it now appears that Murray will remain with the team for the long run. He had a 47.0 QBR (ranked 22nd) in eight games after returning from a torn right ACL last season, which was a little disappointing given that he typically performs well in the NFL Next Gen Stats metric of minus-3% completion percentage over expectation. Editor’s Picks
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Falcons of Atlanta
Kirk Cousins was the 2024 starter predicted.
Status: Looking for a veterinarian
If Cousins is totally healed from his ruptured Achilles from Week 8, then Atlanta makes sense. He would be moving from Vikings coach Kevin O’Connell, a former assistant to Sean McVay, to Falcons offensive coordinator Zac Robinson. Unbelievably, the Falcons are getting closer to contending. The play of quarterbacks Taylor Heinicke and Desmond Ridder held back the team, despite having a reasonably solid squad overall. Not only would the Falcons be the NFC South favorites with Cousins as their established veteran quarterback, but they might also win a couple of postseason games with their new coaching staff.
Ravens of Baltimore
2024 starter projected to be Lamar Jackson
Situation: Confined
After rushing for 821 yards and five additional touchdowns and throwing for 3,678 yards and 24 touchdowns, Jackson is the current MVP. To think, nobody desired to sign Jackson to an offer sheet even a year ago. (Pardon the idea that it was meaningless since the Ravens would have matched; if Baltimore had matched, it wouldn’t have cost the other teams anything, and because no one tried, we’ll never know if the Ravens would have.)
The Buffalo Bills
2024 starter projection: Josh Allen
Situation: Confined
The Bills are fortunate to have the world’s best quarterback who isn’t Patrick Mahomes. Although the 2023 season came to an abrupt end, Allen’s snaps ensure that the Bills have a Super Bowl window that never closes. In addition to becoming the most productive quarterback in the NFL this season, Allen ran for 524 yards and 15 touchdowns this season, completing his passes for 4,306 yards and 29 touchdowns with a 69.6 QBR.
Panthers of Carolina
2024 starter projection: Blake Young
Situation: Confined
Young is locked in because of his draft price. For a quarterback, a disastrous first year (33.4 QBR and 11 touchdown passes on 527 attempts) does not spell doom. That does, however, put Young’s clock on the clock (Jared Goff had a terrible rookie season for the Rams in 2016 before developing into a Pro Bowl-caliber player). The Panthers will be shopping for a new quarterback in 2024 if he doesn’t demonstrate a discernible improvement.
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Bears of Chicago
2024 starter projected to start: Caleb Williams
Status: First-time landing site
It’s difficult for me to see the Bears trading out of the top place for a second consecutive year, but we can only speculate as to what they might get for it. Giving up the pick would be giving in to Fields, who has never had a season over average in his career. Putting a team in a position where they can draft a top-tier quarterback prospect without having to trade up—something I expect the Bears to do with USC’s Williams—is a big part of roster construction.
Bengals of Cincinnati
2024 starter projected: Joe Burrow
Situation: Confined
Burrow missed the final seven games due to a damaged ligament in his right wrist, which ended 2023 as a lost season. He was also limited by an injured right calf throughout the preseason. However, when healthy, he is among the league’s finest quarterbacks, and in 2024, he should be back to that level. His return to the field will elevate Cincinnati back to the title fight.
Browns of Cleveland
2024 starter projected to start: Deshaun Watson
Situation: Relatively safe wager
Watson is in the third year of a $230 million contract that is fully guaranteed, thus he will most likely start at quarterback for the Browns. However, would I really run it back with Watson and risk blowing this roster once more if I were Cleveland? The issue is that, with Watson’s cap number and the loss of their first-round pick to Houston in exchange for Watson, the Browns’ options are severely restricted. At the very least, given that the Browns don’t require a first-round pick and can sign Fields without using up a lot of salary budget room, I could see them as a long shot to land him. Who knows, maybe Kevin Stefanski, the coach, could bring forth his best side.
The Dallas Cowboys
2024 starter projected: Dak Prescott
Situation: Confined
Disregard any talk that says Dallas’s struggles this past season were due to Prescott; in fact, the defense failed to contain Jordan Love during the team’s playoff loss to the Packers. Prescott came in second to Brock Purdy in QBR (72.7) and behind Lamar Jackson in the MVP voting.
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Denver Broncos
Forecasted starter for 2024: J.J. McCarthy
Status: First-time landing site
It makes sense for Denver to remove Russell Wilson even if $39 million is guaranteed to him in 2024 because, should they not, they will fully guarantee Wilson’s $37 million contract in 2025. Denver, with the No. 12 pick, is positioned between two teams that could potentially be interested in a rookie quarterback: the Vikings (No. 11) and the Raiders (No. 13). Though it’s too early to tell precisely who could go where in the middle of the first round, I have Denver selecting McCarthy (Michigan).
Lions of Detroit
Forecasted starter for 2024: Jared Goff
Situation: Confined
When the Lions defeated the Rams in the playoffs, Lions coach Dan Campbell told his quarterback, “You’re good enough for f—ing Detroit, Jared Goff.” And he did. Ben Johnson, the coordinator of the Lions’ offense, has seen Goff thrive. Johnson turned down many head coaching possibilities to remain in Detroit. The Lions’ offensive line ought to stay potent.
Packers in Green Bay
Jordan Love was the 2024 starter predicted.
Situation: Confined
The Packers’ significant risk in giving up on future Hall of Famer Aaron Rodgers and entrusting Love with leading the offense paid off handsomely. By the end of the season, the 2020 first-round pick had developed into one of the best quarterbacks in the NFL, and Love recorded the greatest postseason QBR game in the history of the measure against the Cowboys in the wild-card round. It appears that Green Bay has discovered a new franchise quarterback.
The Houston Texans
2024 starter projected: C.J. Stroud
Situation: Confined
With Stroud, the Texans are well-positioned for 2024 and beyond. With 4,108 passing yards, 23 touchdowns, and a 57.5 QBR in his debut season, the No. 2 overall choice was very good, and he might be much more in the future. Additionally, Tank Dell and Nico Collins, two outstanding young receivers with whom he may develop, are at his disposal.
The Indianapolis Colts
2024 starter projected to start: Anthony Richardson
Situation: Confined
The No. 4 draft choice in 2023 showed promise while playing. However, Richardson had trouble staying healthy, finishing only one of his four starts before suffering a right shoulder AC joint sprain that ruined his rookie campaign. Although there are still doubts about his capacity to stay active, Richardson obviously offers Indianapolis potential and optimism for the future.
Jacksonville Jaguars
Trevor Lawrence is the projected starter for 2024.
Situation: Confined
Lawrence ranked 17th in QBR (56.1) in 2023, not quite the predicted improvement, but going into the next season, he’s probably the least of Jacksonville’s issues. With the same offensive coaching staff leading Jacksonville again, they must at the very least improve Lawrence’s protection. (The Jaguars’ pass block win percentage from the previous season was 29th.)
The Chiefs of Kansas City
2024 starter projected to start: Patrick Mahomes
Situation: Confined
Mahomes recently guided the Chiefs to their second consecutive Super Bowl victory and their third in five years, despite a dearth of talented wide outs. Because he is the world’s greatest quarterback, the Chiefs are always a Super Bowl contender.
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The Raiders of Las Vegas
2024 starter projection: Michael Penix Jr.
Status: First-time landing site
The Raiders, like their divisional rivals the Broncos, are in need of a quarterback and are in a position to get one in the draft. Because Penix (Washington) was the sixth quarterback selected in Matt Miller’s most recent mock draft and because they are behind Denver and Minnesota in the draft order, I have chosen to match them with Penix here. However, if the board goes in the Raiders’ favor, they might not need to select Penix at No. 13; instead, they might trade down and grab him later in Round 1 or take him in Round 2.
Chargers of Los Angeles
2024 starter projected to start: Justin Herbert
Situation: Confined
Despite having one of the best quarterbacks in the league at their disposal, the Chargers don’t have much to show for it. Can Jim Harbaugh help the team succeed and unleash the full potential of Herbert, who has the most passing yards (17,223) in NFL history through his first four years of play? That is the query for the years 2024 and later.
Rams of Los Angeles
2024 starter projection: Matthew Stafford
Situation: Confined
In 2023, Stafford demonstrated his continued ability with 3,965 passing yards, 24 touchdowns, and a 63.5 QBR. Additionally, the Rams have become a danger once more with the addition of young players like defensive tackle Kobie Turner and receiver Puka Nacua. In 2024, the Rams’ wide receivers, Stafford, and Sean McVay will make this offense formidable.
Dolphins of Miami
2024 starter projected to start: Tua Tagovailoa
Situation: Confined
Tagovailoa is the proper quarterback for the Dolphins right now, even though there may be some doubts about whether he is the best option in Miami in the long run. With Tagovailoa leading the Dolphins in EPA per dropback in 2023—he completed passes for 4,624 yards and 29 touchdowns with a 60.8 QBR—the team finished fourth.
Minnesota Vikings
2024 starting projection: Russell Wilson
Status: Looking for a veterinarian
We’ll refer to this as Wilson plus Bo Nix from Oregon. Although it’s possible that Cousins may return to Minnesota, I can see the Vikings refusing to offer him a multiyear guaranteed contract. Wilson is arguably the finest temporary replacement if he is removed from the equation. (I assume the Bears wouldn’t trade Justin Fields within their division.) However, the Vikings may target more than one guy in an attempt to cover Cousins’ absence. If they do, it makes the most sense to choose Wilson and a quarterback at the No. 12 pick.
Patriots of New England
2024 starter projected to start: Jayden Daniels
Status: First-time landing site
Perhaps the Patriots will choose to pass on Ohio State wide receiver Marvin Harrison Jr. with the third overall pick, or they may trade down to select him. However, after losing to Mac Jones and Bailey Zappe in the previous season, this squad is in position to get a top rookie without having to trade up. Teams typically can’t pass up a position like that, and Daniels of LSU meets the bill.
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The New Orleans Saint
Derek Carr is the projected 2024 starter.
Situation: Relatively safe wager
Carr is almost definitely locked in for New Orleans because he has $30 million totally guaranteed to him in 2024 (with about $23 million just converted into a signing bonus). Carr was fine in 2023, but the Saints’ inability to win the NFC South was cause for disappointment. Carr’s QBR (56.5), which ranked 16th in the NFL, was about league-average despite some tough patches.
The Giants of New York
2024 starting projection: Daniel Jones
Situation: Relatively safe wager
After one successful NFL season, the Giants made a mistake by signing Jones to a contract with $82 million fully guaranteed in the offseason. Before rupturing his right ACL in six games during the 2023 season, Jones had a dismal performance. Given that removing Jones would result in a $68.8 million dead money charge, the Giants are probably going to keep with him to start the season, but you never know.
Jets in New York
2024 starter projected to start: Aaron Rodgers
Situation: Confined
The Jets are hoping that in 2023, the great Rodgers experiment, which lasted four plays, will finally pay off. There are still a lot of unanswered questions regarding the Jets’ starting quarterback. After recovering from his left Achilles injury, will Rodgers be the same? Is Nathaniel Hackett’s offensive sustainable? In addition to wide receiver Garrett Wilson, do the Jets add another dynamic pass-catcher to their roster in the offseason? More importantly, will they be able to keep Aaron Rodgers safe?
Eagles of Philadelphia
2024 starting projection: Jarlen Hurts
Situation: Confined
Hurts struggled in the second half of 2023; his QBR from the Eagles’ tenth game on was only 51.0. However, there is optimism that Hurts and the Eagles’ offense can find their rhythm under new offensive coordinator Kellen Moore.
The Pittsburgh Steelers
2024 starting projection: Justin Fields
Status: Looking for a veterinarian
Although Mason Rudolph played well in a few starts towards the end of the season, he hasn’t been consistent enough in his career to be a safe option moving forward. Kenny Pickett hasn’t demonstrated enough progress in two seasons to be the Steelers’ next franchise quarterback. They are a contender to deal for Fields because they managed 10 victories the previous season in spite of having a subpar QB group. Fields might work well with new offensive coordinator Arthur Smith.
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49ers of San Francisco
2024 starter projection: Brock Purdy
Situation: Confined
Although the 49ers were once again denied a Super Bowl victory, Purdy provided a lot of answers in 2023, leading the NFL in QBR at 72.8. The argument will continue: Is Purdy a star or just a byproduct of his upbringing? Most likely, the reality lies somewhere in the middle. Even though the 49ers had the best offense in the NFL, Purdy is a good starter who can carry out Kyle Shanahan’s scheme at a very high level. However, in isolation, he is not a great quarterback. That is more than sufficient to start for San Francisco, especially considering his extremely low cost ($1.004 million cap charge in 2024).
The Seattle Seahawks
Predicted 2024 starter: Geno Smith
Situation: Relatively safe wager
With former coach Pete Carroll gone, the Seahawks’ future at quarterback is slightly murky. Smith is under contract at a very reasonable price, with a $26.4 million cap charge in 2024. Because of that and generally solid play — he ranked 14th in QBR (59.5) and had a plus-2% completion percentage over expectation, per NFL Next Gen Stats — I think he’ll keep the job in the short term. But Seattle might keep its eye out for a longer-term solution.
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Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Predicted 2024 starter: Baker Mayfield
Situation: Relatively safe wager
Mayfield is a free agent, but a return to Tampa Bay should be attractive for both parties. The 2018 No. 1 overall pick exceeded expectations in 2023 with a very solid 54.0 QBR (ranked 18th) and the Bucs don’t draft until pick No. 26, which might leave them out of the running for the top six QB prospects. Even if one falls and Tampa Bay takes him, there’s a decent chance Mayfield would begin the season as the starter. I wonder if the Bucs would be so eager to bring Mayfield back had they missed the playoffs, but we’ll never know.
Tennessee Titans
Predicted 2024 starter: Will Levis
Situation: Relatively safe wager
By default, the Titans are committed to Levis as the 2023 second-round pick enters his second NFL season. I think that’s how it will end up, but Levis posted a 33 QBR this season and the Titans sit at the No. 7 spot in April’s draft. If it were me, I’d take a long look at the rookie quarterbacks.
Washington Commanders
Predicted 2024 starter: Drake Maye
Status: First-time landing site
The Commanders lost their final eight games to move into the No. 2 slot in a quarterback-heavy draft, absolving them of the decision of whether to give Sam Howell another shot. Now they’ll get a top quarterback prospect — perhaps UNC’s Maye — without having to trade up and can keep Howell as a solid backup. Washington’s stock is on the rise.
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